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Wet April reduced drought talk, but wildfire risk remains

Alaska entered its legally designated wildfire season April 1, but the good news is that the month was exceptionally wet, according to the Alaska Climate Research Center.

The climate center, a part of the University of Alaska Fairbanks Geophysical Institute, issued its May 2.

“There were discussions about the widespread drought conditions until the end of March,” ACRC Director Martin Stuefer said. 

Below normal precipitation in late winter from the Interior to Bristol Bay, Southcentral, the Kenai Peninsula and to the Southeast Alaska panhandle fueled the drought concerns, Stuefer said.

“That triggered fear of an early start of a possibly extreme wildfire season,” he said. “April’s precipitation totals dampened the drought discussions in some places for the time being, but people should still be aware of wildfire potential throughout the state as the season progresses.”

Anchorage had a particularly wet April, with 1.5 inches of precipitation.

“That has been surpassed only four times in the past 70 years in Anchorage,” Stuefer said. “That’s 344% above normal for Anchorage in that month.”

Other notable precipitation increases: King Salmon had 3.2 inches, 305% of normal; Homer had 2.6 inches, 227% of normal; Talkeetna had 2 inches, 151% of normal; and Fairbanks had 0.7 inch, 205% of normal.

The abundant April precipitation, which includes rainfall and snowfall, has ended the “abnormally dry” conditions that were present in the Southwest and parts of Southcentral during March, according to the .

Alaskans shouldn’t relax about wildfires, however.

“Spring conditions don’t tell us how the heart of fire season in June and July will play out,” said Nate Perrine, Alaska Interagency Coordination Center wildland fire behavior analyst.

“There are no early indicators that all the right ingredients — like a long dry spell followed by widespread lightning — won’t come together,” he said. “That’s why it’s critical to prepare for wildfires now, because it’s not a matter of if wildfires occur, but when.”

The Alaska Climate Research Center has started its model calculations in preparation for this wildfire season.

Although many parts of the state had a wetter-than-normal April, parts of the southern Panhandle remain under abnormally dry conditions following the relatively dry winter in this region, the ACRC report states.

Anchorage’s April was not only wet but also snowy, with over 13 inches of snowfall, for 332% of the 1991-2020 climatological mean. Fairbanks also had a snowy month with 9.2 inches, which was 264% of normal.

The daily temperatures were above normal for about the first week of April at most stations, with some setting records, then dropped with the change in the upper level pattern to bring about a week of below average temperatures to western Alaska and the Interior. Deviations hovered at slightly above normal values at most stations for the rest of the month.

ADDITIONAL CONTACT: Martin Stuefer, mstuefer@alaska.edu

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